The internet is buzzing with entertaining rants and doomsday predictions about the AI hype bubble's bursting any day now. Critics love to paint it as a fleeting fad doomed for a spectacular crash. Here are some of my favorite takedowns (links to the originals for your doom-scrolling pleasure):
- Fabio Ciucci's tweets
- Ed Zitron's fabulous vitriol
- Cory Doctorow's rant
- Nichil Suresh (of course)
- Vantille
- Ash Milton's sober article
Investors, meanwhile, obsess over "timing the top": Ride the wave of inflated expectations to the peak, then cash out before the plunge into the "trough of disillusionment." Smart strategy? Not so fast. Not so fast!
Because I am old, I see parallels to the Visicalc era of spreadsheets—the groundbreaking 1979 software that sparked a revolution but got crushed in the shakeout wars. What emerged? Microsoft Excel, the "evil empire's" powerhouse that now generates about $70 billion annually for Microsoft (MSFT). Valued alone at around $684 billion (excluding its vast ecosystem), Excel proves how one dominant tool can redefine industries. If AI proves even more transformational, $1 trillion in returns isn't just possible—it's within striking distance
Because I am old, I see parallels to the Visicalc era of spreadsheets—the groundbreaking 1979 software that sparked a revolution but got crushed in the shakeout wars. What emerged? Microsoft Excel, the "evil empire's" powerhouse that now generates about $70 billion annually for Microsoft (MSFT). Valued alone at around $684 billion (excluding its vast ecosystem), Excel proves how one dominant tool can redefine industries. If AI proves even more transformational, $1 trillion in returns isn't just possible—it's within striking distance
Wiser voices than mine argue this "hype bubble" won't deflate in one massive correction. The traditional Gartner Hype Cycle might not even apply here. Instead of a single pop, expect a series of refinements as AI matures into practical, profitable dominance. The real winners? Those who build for the long game, not the quick flip. What do you think—bubble or breakthrough?
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