Meeker Report: Our New World - April 2020

Although her 2020 Internet report is not yet out, Mary Meeker published a report in April called "Our New World."  Her reports and analysis are always worth skimming.  I am hoping her Internet Report 2020 will come out this month.

Positive Results: Time to Sell Gilead (GIL) stock?

The New England Journal of Medicine (I love their studies) has published some extremely good news for Gilead's Remdesivir.  Among the interesting results from the study is that the Chinese researchers lied. Remdesivir shortened a patient's time to recovery compared to the placebo group, from an average of 15 days to 11 days. Improvements occurred whether or not the patient was receiving supplemental oxygen. What's more, the data lays to rest any worries that remdesivir has to be given very early after the onset of symptoms. In fact, those participants who entered the trial more than 10 days after the onset of symptoms actually showed a better response to remdesivir than those who started being treated during the first 10 days!

even more good news about our genocidal war against SARS-CoV-2

A company called "Moderna" has announced findings from their first study, that their vaccine likely works.  Also (today), a study was published claiming the immune systems of people who were infected have changed SARS-CoV-2's genome but we don't know what that means yet.

Lots of good news!

Researchers have identified an antibody that blocks both SARS-CoV-1 and -2 from infecting cells in culture and have already obtained the DNA that encodes this specific antibody and have made a human version of it.  As the authors note, we already know that therapies and vaccines based on this approach are effective.

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Coronaviruses code for big proteins that are inactive until they are cut into smaller pieces.  Proteases slice them into bad, functioning proteins. Inactivating the proteases would block viral infection. Existing, human-safe protease inhibitors were screened against SARS-CoV-2's enzymes. One of those, carmofur, turned out to be effective; this study shows how it's able to bind the SARS-CoV-2 protease and inactivate it.  Woot!

 

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One more:  Where will we get all those human antibodies we need for treatments?  People are currently giving them away.  I think the evil insurance companies should pay the donors in a free, open market-based system.

Reminder about Testing Accuracy in a population

Here a review of Bayes' Theorem and its application to remind us how estimations from small samples (even a million tests) are extremely inaccurate: 

P(A|B) = P(Covid|Test) = P(Test|Covid) * P(Covid) / P(Test) =
  0.99 * 0.01 / (P(Test|Covid)*P(Covid) + P(Test|~Covid)*P(~Covid)) =
  0.99 * 0.01 / (0.99*0.01 + 0.01*0.99) = 0.5

This question is on every MCAT exam but doctors forget it as soon as they begin practicing.

Good news about vaccine development

(click image to enlarge)

ArsTech published a great round-up of the 102 vaccine candidates' progress today and Bill Gates wrote up some details about how quickly we are moving. In broader terms, the capability these efforts enable will be re-used in the future as we enhance the health of all humans to treat and contain infectious disease.

We are poisoning ourselves because of our paranoia

The US centers for disease control (CDC) has released a study indicating that Americans are poisoning ourselves trying to kill the respiratory infection over which the world has lost its collective mind.

Make vaccines great again!

David Brin opened his latest missive with this story about the "Asian Flu" of 1957:

"Maurice Hilleman, a doctor later regarded as the godfather of vaccines, in 1957 read about a nasty flu outbreak in Hong Kong that mentioned glassy-eyed children at a clinic, tipping him off that these deaths meant the next big flu pandemic." Hilleman requested samples of the virus be shipped to U.S. drugmakers right away so they could get a vaccine ready. Though 70,000 people in the United States ultimately died, "some predicted that the U.S. death toll would have reached 1 million without the vaccine that Hilleman called for... Health officials widely credited that vaccine with saving many lives." 

Dwight Eisenhower was the president. The "Greatest Generation" admired science and expertise. The most celebrated and popular American at the time was named Jonas Salk. Let's all make America that kind of great again.

I agree!

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine booster will become part of annual flu shot

ArsTech has a great summary of this interesting model and analysis of what will happen in future years, as COVID19 becomes part of our annual "flu season."

Over-reaction causing more deaths, not just wealth destruction

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3xEOcJ3YUw

Professor John Leannidis from Stanford explains why our current policies are causing many more deaths globally than a science-based, rational response would cause.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G3xEOcJ3YUw

take advantage of deserted roads

Take advantage of deserted roads. Send out teams of two to four workers - trained in hygiene and safety - to fix potholes, repair empty schools. Get furloughed people to work. Fix infrastructure; stimulate the economy.

Remote Worker Data

This Zapier survey report on remote work has some counter-intuitive data that explain phenomena the tech companies are experiencing during the political lock-downs around the world.

Should I wear an N95 mask?

ArsTech updates us with new data about masks.  Good read.

Retinopathy causing, Heart Disease inducing, irreversible liver, kidney damaging medication approved for emergency use

FDA approves emergency use of chloroquine. The fools!  Even the paper recommending consideration has repeated, emphatic warnings about the "ethical implications" of killing patients with the treatment.  Why not Remdesivir?

xenophobia, nationalism on the rise

The Guardian is reporting a new wave of Chinese government official policy of Xenophobia to blame all wrongs on foreign devils.  The Global Village is in decline.

"the focus on foreigners – surprising given that 90% of imported cases were Chinese passport holders, according to the country's foreign ministry – is the leadership's attempt to shore up its image."

And volunteers are needed to shore up labor shortages in farms to complete the harvest in Israel under continued rocket fire from Gaza.

Cases, Tests, Hospitalizations

https://covid-19.direct/US

Here is another good source of data to track the contagion.  Drill down to your county. 

I am waiting for a tracker with a variable radius from a lat-long (geographical location) as we had in the 1960's for H-Bomb blast, damage, and radiation damage.

'Murican Makers making medical makeshift magic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=036UAwQ6PZw

Home made open source $100 respirator from parts you get at a local hardware store. Youtube Video

Yankee ingenuity and entrepreneurial spirit, open source, and a gofundme page.  Awesome!

Surface Transmission

Johns Hopkins has published an interesting guide to which surfaces are more or less effective at transmission and how to maintain safe near-sterile techniques while handling fabrics, cardboard, plastics.

At-Home Workout by Ellie Woods

These ideas seem safe simple, low-impact, and flexible for time.

Asymptomatic Transmission?

The role of delayed and asymptomatic transmission is still unclear with errors larger than our results.  Massive testing is needed to understand what is really happening.