The Lindy Effect of public Internet Information and Object Permanence

The Lindy effect aka "Lindy's law" is the theory that the momentary future life expectancy of an idea or technology (object) is a Pareto probability distribution proportional to the current age of the object. So the longer something has existed, the longer its remaining life expectancy.  This idea also applies to some species of life, but subpopulations of animals frequently follow lognormal distributions instead of Pareto.

The short and shrinking lifetime of trending ideas and technology is nowhere more evident than Internet blogs, web sites, AI companies, and memes.  I discovered that jwz published a pair of scripts to make your URLs a little more permanent.  One rewrite URLs to use archive.org and the other crawls your wordpress blog to rewrite all links to point at archive.org.  

archive.org is the prime target for takedowns; in fact, the Lindy's Law link above was taken down!  Luckily, other preservation sites are filling the gap for wayback machine functionality. There are many web sites like archive.ph, stillio, perma.cc, mementoweb, and archivebox that can fill the gaps, but the longevity of these archive sites is also questionable.

The Technological Republic by Alex Karp (2025)

Great book with interesting ideas and a refreshingly new perspective.  Alex Karp is emerging as a new intellectual thought leader among patriotic but rational, civil leaders in the USA.  His ethics and ideas are sometimes overly simplistic; and his expression of win/lose  Realpolitik is harsh. Thought-provoking and worthwhile, 5/5 Stars.

Midnight in Moscow by John J Sullivan (2024)

The book offers a compelling and insightful recounting of the American ambassador's experiences in Russia during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the tense prelude and early stages of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. For me, it was an eye-opening narrative. I've always found it perplexing how international dynamics can unravel when leaders become so entrenched in their own perspectives that they lose sight of reality. This story highlights a recurring failure of imagination—an inability to grasp the clear, unvarnished actions and motives of their counterparts on the global stage. 4/5 Stars. 

First they came for the Copy Editors. . .

Apologies for abusing the famous Holocaust poem in the title, I noticed today that the genAI bubble is making enormous progress at replacing developers.  I, personally, enjoy chatting with AI chatbots to accomplish many tasks and I am collecting my own personal sets of prompts and meta-prompts.  However, I cannot imagine what it would be like for a non-coder to use a genAI to write code because I already can code.  I suppose it would be akin to my using a genAI to compose and sell Hindi poetry and Hindi songs.  I speak no Hindi, have no sensibility for Hindi audiences' taste in music or how to earn money in a Hindi-speaking music market, etc.  The phenomenon is also like the Chinese Room thought experiment.

Side note on the title of this post

Niemöller famously and poetically articulated the wave of the Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei (Nazi) popular Zeitgeist ideology that swept across the population of Germany and led to death camps, extermination of people, etc.. Although there are many variations of the poem, the most common written version in Holocaust museums is:

First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out--
Because I was not a Socialist.
Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out--
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out--
Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me--and there was no one left to speak for me.

However, Niemöller likely used the word "Communists" in the original oration.

Revenge of the Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell (2024)

I almost always enjoy Gladwell's stories and books.  This one is fantastic and highly recommended. 5/5 Stars.

If I betray these words by Wendy Dean and Simon Talbot (2023)

This book presents a fascinating and in-depth collection of vignettes that highlight the dedication and idealism of medical professionals. It vividly illustrates the struggles these devoted doctors face against the encroachment of private equity firms and other large corporate entities that destroy the integrity of patient care.

Through these narratives, we witness firsthand the detrimental impact of prioritizing shareholder value over patient well-being. The most valuable aspect of the book lies in the authors' insightful recommendations for how physicians can effectively navigate these challenging circumstances to ensure high-quality care for their patients.

Overall, this book is a thought-provoking examination of the intersection between medicine and corporate interests, offering both inspiration and practical guidance for healthcare professionals. 4/5 Stars.

Die Fahrt von Sibylle Berg (2009)

Dieses Buch erinnert mich an James Micheners The Drifters aus dem Jahr 1971. Beide Romane stellen eine Gruppe junger Menschen und ihre Erfahrungen in verschiedenen Kulturen in den Mittelpunkt.

Bergs Buch entführt uns auf eine Reise um die Welt und legt den Fokus auf benachteiligte Menschen, die nach dem Sinn des Lebens suchen und darum kämpfen, ihre Lebensumstände zu verbessern. Als jemand, der Geschichten aus dem wahren Leben besonders schätzt, empfand ich Bergs Schreibstil als äußerst fesselnd. Jede Vignette zog mich tief in die Welt der Charaktere hinein.

Allerdings ist der gesamte Ton des Buches recht düster. Im Gegensatz zu Micheners Werk, das seine Auseinandersetzung mit sozialen Problemen durch Momente der Hoffnung ausgleicht, präsentiert Berg eine durchweg pessimistische Perspektive. Obwohl die Beobachtungsgabe und der Erzählstil des Autors beeindruckend sind, empfand ich den ständigen Fokus auf Leid und die scheinbare Aussichtslosigkeit, dauerhaftes Glück zu finden, als belastend.

Trotz der Schwere seiner Themen regt das Buch zum Nachdenken an und ist handwerklich gut geschrieben. Wenn Sie anspruchsvolle Lektüre schätzen, die einen ungeschönten Blick auf globale Ungleichheiten und menschliche Probleme wirft, werden Sie Bergs Werk vermutlich fesselnd finden. Wenn Sie jedoch eine aufbauende Geschichte suchen, ist dieses Buch möglicherweise keine geeignete Wahl.

Ich bewundere Bergs schriftstellerisches Talent und die Intensität seiner Erzählweise. Dennoch hinterließ die unnachgiebige Trostlosigkeit des Buches bei mir einen bedrückenden Eindruck. 3 von 5 Sternen.

Hope for the best; plan for the rest by Hsien Seow and Sammy Winemaker (2023)

Similar, but not as good as Atul Gawande's Being Mortal, this book explains how and why most of us should prepare for our inevitable end-of-life and also for being a good team member of care-givers for loved-ones who approach end-of-life.  Gawande's book approaches the choices and tradeoffs, while this book provides a framework for navigating the system assuming you (or loved-one) has a clear understanding of the choices and tradeoffs. 3/5 Stars.

Nexus by Yuval Harari (2024)

Puke awful, terrible. I put the book down after suffering through half of the text. 0/5 Stars. Harari should spend 1/10th the time he spends meditating on a modicum of scholarship.  His definitions of "information" and "networks" are brain dead stupid. A rational 10-year-old could be more rational. His definition of political "democracy" is equally naive, inconsistent, and stupid. I am upset I wasted so much time on this drivel. Reminder to self:  Do not read anything by Harari.

Screens are *still* worse than Paper for reading retention

My first published academic paper in 1987 explained an elegant experiment I ran using SAT test questions that measure retention to discover if humans retain and understand information better by reading on paper or reading from screens.  Of course the overwhelming measurements and evidence indicate that reading from paper is much better than screens.  Recently, Amy Tyson published an in-depth study about the use of books and paper versus devices (phones, tablets, computers) in classrooms and looking at test scores.  She validated my measurements in school settings.  If you have a kid in school, get them to use books and printed materials.

Irreversible Damage by Abigail Shrier (2020)

This book is much better than I expected. The author is a journalist who does a very good job of presenting the science through the words and interviews with the thought leading scientists themselves.  I did not appreciate or enjoy some of the social commentary and politics, but she does present highly relevant and astute observations. 5/5 Stars.

The Daily Laws by Robert Greene (2021)

Here are some excerpts Robert Greene has collected from his earlier works on the topics of strategy, human nature, manipulating people, and stoic philosophy.  There is not much new that is not in his books, so if you (like me) have read them, don't bother with this one. As Robert and I both get closer to our inevitable deaths, the last few meditations were good reminders for me to live with more intensity. 3/5 Stars.

Lost in Trans Nation by Miriam Grossman (2023)

I recently watched this Free Press interview with Steven Pinker where professor Pinker chats with Michael Moynaham on "why smart people believe in stupid things" such as conspiracy theories.  Moynahan grilled Pinker on many current events that evidence backsliding of our western societies away from rationality and enlightenment thinking, including evidence-based science. In this bit of the interview, during their discussion of Jon Haidt's book Pinker acknowledges that the political, economic, and scientific communities are retreating from science.

"The routine pathologizing of ordinary human emotion where every setback is a trauma where every difference is a neuroatypical condition and which Haidt and Greg lukanov have identified as the three great law lies: 1) whatever doesn't kill you makes you weaker 2) always trust your emotions and 3) the world may be divided into good and evil. They argue these lies are the diametric opposite to what cognitive behavior therapy tries to accomplish. And we know this therapy is one of the most successful forms of therapy of all time And the set of three great untruths may have had as much of a role as the like button on Facebook. I would add another thing. I tend to think that the Doom Mongering of mainstream media, which is easier and easier as everyone is an on-the-spot reporter.

Among the anti-science phenomena where activist bullies have destroyed evidence-based studies, enlightenment ideals, rationality, and the progress we had made in mental health treatments is the "trans" movement.  This fantastic book by Miriam Grossman is well-researched, well-written, and valuable.  The references and depth of her explanations is fantastic.  I was crying through two of the chapters as the real traumas were described in excruciating detail. All parents should read this book. 5/5 Stars.  Highly recommended.

Miracle and Wonder: Conversations with Paul Simon by Malcolm Gladwell (2021)

Great podcast by Malcolm Gladwell describing Paul Simon's career and music.  5/5 Stars.

The rise of the Wobos

I sometimes read transcripts of, or listen to Yascha Mounk's interviews.  His latest interview is with New York TImes columnist David Brooks.  Mr. Brooks is hawking his latest book. Among the interesting topics discussed by Dr. Mounk and Mr. Brooks is the rise of the "Woke Bourgeois," (WoBos).  Some find our current geopolitical situation analogous to the conditions that led to the 12 million Ukrainians murdered by Stalin (see Live Not by Lies and the Netflix Film "Mr. Jones."

Learning from Hamas Apologists

Dan Gardner's post about how we are all susceptible to losing our own capability to reason is fantastic.  How can these very smart people defend their support of such atrocities?  Gardner explains the thought process and phenomenon well.  One unique element of the Hamas Apologist example that Gardner is missing from this analysis is the Quranic concept that deception is essential to the righteous struggle for all good people to overcome the abomination of the world outside of strict Sharia law.  The intelligent, articulate Hamas Apologists have a slightly richer set of beliefs and motivations than the people from the past secular examples Gardner cites.  I highly recommend Gardner's post.  It explains a lot.

Vivid Tomorrows by David Brin (2021)

I finally bought and read this book.  David does cover the Zeitgeist of the public and world leaders -- how cinema and TV are correlated  with policies and priorities. But most of the book is David's repeated rants about how important civilization, civics, and society are.  We do not spend enough time celebrating the progress in all measures of better lives and outcomes.  The Enlightenment and Humanism that led to better forms of governance, social justice, and society are only rarely put on TV and cinema.  The fantasy and most sci-fi on our screens is about feudal societies, patriarchies, monarchies, and evil institutions.  David thinks we should celebrate how well we all work together.  The essays are worthwhile, of course.  David's ideas are always worth reading. 4/5 Stars.

Israel in 2048: The Rejuvenated State by Michael Oren (2023)

Oren is a pragmatic politician with deep understanding of the difficult politics in the middle east. He has what most westerners might consider an odd take on informal international agreements. His concept aligns with Ibn Khaldum's The Muqaddimah (Introduction)  as well as modern middle eastern statecraft.in general. This book outlines a handful of serious issues and Oren's vision for addressing them.  I always enjoy Oren's analysis.  This book is somewhat less well researched as his history or fiction books but is good, none-the-less. 4/5 Stars.

irreparable damage from generative AI large language models

This post by Cory is worth reading. Here is the appropriate hook to get you to click:

Let's be clear here: these kinds of lawyer letters aren't good writing; they're a highly specific form of bad writing. The point of this letter isn't to parse the text, it's to send a signal. If the letter was well-written, it wouldn't send the right signal. For the letter to work, it has to read like it was written by someone whose prose-sense was irreparably damaged by a legal education.

. . .

The fact that an LLM can manufacture this once-expensive signal for free means that the signal's meaning will shortly change, forever. Once companies realize that this kind of letter can be generated on demand, it will cease to mean, "You are dealing with a furious, vindictive rich person." It will come to mean, "You are dealing with someone who knows how to type 'generate legal threat' into a search box."

Legal threat letters are in a class of language formally called "bullshit"

Please go read Cory's whole thing..

Three Questions for a Frantic Family by Patrick Lencioni (2008)

Our family is no longer frantic; this book would have been fantastic during the decades our family was frantic. Interestingly, the business concepts behind their application to families shines through, making the book worthwhile, so I am glad I did (eventually) read it.  I still have a bunch more Lencioni books to read. 4/5 Stars.