Showing posts with label sociology. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sociology. Show all posts

Thursday, November 13, 2025

Against the Machine: On the Unmaking of Humanity (2025)

This book collapses under its own thesis. The author ignores centuries of progress in life expectancy, public health, infrastructure, medicine, and standards of living. Instead, he romanticizes a mythical pre-industrial past, lamenting our supposed surrender to "the machine." His vision of history erases violence, starvation, disease, and labor exploitation. The result is a nostalgic fantasy built on false premises.

The critique of modern digital life—social media, online services, and passive entertainment—has some merit, but it rests on exaggeration. The author dismisses personal choice and human adaptability, assuming we are helpless before technology and the enshittifcation of social services.

The argument is shallow, moralizing, and historically blind. 1/5 stars.

Thursday, October 30, 2025

Rewiring Democracy by Bruce Schneier and Nathan Sanders (2015)


I usually enjoy Bruce Schneier's books because they are clear, well-structured, and full of practical insight. Rewiring Democracy is no exception. The authors argue that artificial intelligence is not a radical break from existing technologies but rather a natural extension of them. They make the case that AI, if applied carefully, can improve democratic processes instead of threatening them.

The book explains how large language models, chatbots, and other machine learning tools could expand public participation, make legislation more transparent, and help citizens understand policy. I found the authors' steady optimism and lack of alarmism refreshing. They stay grounded in facts and resist the sensationalism that often surrounds discussions of AI and politics.

However, the book is dense. The detailed descriptions of the "dance of legislation" and the mechanics of bureaucracy can be tedious for readers uninterested in political procedure. Still, those sections show how the authors think AI could fit into real-world governance rather than just theory.

Even when the topic veers into areas I find dull, the book remains valuable for showing how broad the applications of AI have become. It highlights both the potential and the practical challenges of integrating intelligent systems into democratic life. 4/5 Stars.

Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Abundance by Ezra Klein & Derek Thompson (2025)

Despite moments of political bias and some selective use of data, Abundance excels at what few books attempt: explaining the mechanics of modern economic growth within the tangled realities of politics, culture, and urban life. Klein and Thompson trace how societies build—or fail to build—the physical foundations of prosperity: housing, infrastructure, and industrial capacity.

They move easily from global trends to city-level bottlenecks, showing how ideology, regulation, and social attitudes shape what gets built and what stalls. The book's strength lies in its synthesis: it connects political theory with hard economic outcomes, revealing how values and governance directly determine material progress.

Where Vaclav Smil dissects production from a paleontological view -- purely technical or ecological perspective, Abundance focuses on agency: on the people and policies that choose between creation and constraint. Even when chronicling policy fiascos like California's high-speed rail, the authors maintain a credible optimism rooted in civic will and practical reform.

Addressed primarily to liberal readers, their message is blunt: scarcity is a political choice, not an inevitability. Choosing abundance means reclaiming ambition and capacity for collective improvement.

Clear, timely, and uncommonly coherent, Abundance deserves attention well beyond its partisan audience. 5/5 stars.

Friday, October 17, 2025

Lions and Scavengers by Ben Shapiro (2025)


Ben Shapiro's book crafts an allegory contrasting Enlightenment-driven wealth creation with socialist power grabs aiming for equal outcomes through wealth redistribution. The ecological model—hunters versus scavengers—starts strong, illustrating humanist rationality against emotional collectivism. Yet, the analogy falters. Shapiro introduces "weavers" and forces mismatched behaviors into the framework, muddying the narrative. Douglas Murray's On Democracies and Death Cults tackles similar themes with sharper clarity, avoiding speculative motives and strained metaphors. Shapiro's evidence and judgments on justice and policy hold weight, but selective scripture quotes and ascribed dark intentions to political actors weaken his case. The book gestures at insight but collapses under its own contrivances. I do not recommend this book. 3/5 stars.

Friday, October 3, 2025

The sword of freedom by Yossi Cohen (2025)


This book is equal parts memoir, political manifesto, and strategic reflection. While the text is saturated with self-promotion and at times descends into outright boasting, Cohen nevertheless delivers an unusually candid account of the inner workings of a modern intelligence service and its entanglement with statecraft. His personal ambition—to position himself as a plausible future prime minister—is barely concealed, and readers seeking a detached or modest narrative will not find it here.

Despite the political grandstanding, the book offers genuine rewards. Cohen's biographical vignettes and his recounting of espionage operations are both entertaining and instructive. More importantly, his discussion of the mission of a national intelligence service, the role of the individual spy, and the necessity of engaging with one's adversaries on their own terms is striking. He shows rare empathy for the values and goals of opponents, and from this vantage point explains the effectiveness of disinformation, deception, "big lies," and ideological campaigns waged against the West.

Perhaps the book's greatest contribution lies in its critique of the West's chronic diplomatic failures. Cohen highlights the disjunction between Western nations' reliance on Enlightenment humanist assumptions and the fundamentally different axioms guiding most political powers in the world today. By revealing how this mismatch enables adversaries to manipulate and outmaneuver liberal democracies, he forces readers to rethink not only intelligence but the philosophical underpinnings of Western diplomacy.

Ambitious, self-serving, yet ultimately illuminating, The Sword of Freedom succeeds in balancing flawed authorial ego with valuable insight into intelligence, power, and the limits of Western ideals. 4/5 stars

Saturday, September 20, 2025

Co-Intelligence by Ethan Mollick (2024)

My work centers on researching and building AI applications, and I manage a broad software team. Some of my colleagues dive headlong into "vibe coding" with generative AI assistants and agentic workflows, while others resist or adopt slowly. Outside of work, I experiment with chatbots and occasionally use them for personal coding, writing, and evaluation tasks. One of my team members recommended Co-Intelligence, so I began with the audiobook on a long flight. I retained little from that attempt. Reading the ebook with notes proved more effective, and I extracted the key insights.

I approach most AI commentary with skepticism. The hype bubble, inflated by the trillion-dollar "magnificent seven," resembles many earlier cycles. Still, just as calculators, GPS, and spell-checkers raised the floor of productivity, generative AI is now advancing the Gartner "plateau of productivity."

Mollick's enthusiasm is obvious, but his "four principles" are sound: (1) treat AI as a partner, not a tool; (2) use it often to learn its strengths and limits; (3) be transparent about when and how you employ it; and (4) expect disruption as norms shift. His prompt-design examples are pragmatic, too. Roughly one-third of the book delivers practical value; the rest dissolves into speculation and fanboy exuberance. Even so, the book is worth reading. 4/5 stars.

Friday, June 13, 2025

Drone Factories Behind Enemy Lines

Ukraine created and remotely operated a weaponized drone factory inside Russia. Ukraine also contracted honest Russian freight companies to load and move trucks and later train cars containing autonomous self-deploying fleets of drones near Russian military targets.  A good analysis of the 20th century history of this type of asymmetric “behind enemy lines” tactic is here. And a great military economics and strategy analysis of the success of the operations is here.



More recently, Israel created and remotely operated a weaponized drone assembly area as well as a missile assembly area inside Iran at a much longer distance (1,500 km).

Israel also coordinated suppression of enemy aerial defense (SEAD) with these vulnerable autonomous close-range weapon operations.


In addition, Israel targeted senior Iranian military leaders who were competent and successful at prosecuting their decades-long campaign to destroy Israel and murder all Israeli citizens. Iran has colonized much of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen. Iran created powerful proxy armies in each of these areas. The Houthis in Yemen fought the US Navy to a stand-still (draw) and continue to keep Israelis in bomb shelters every day with their missile attacks. Hezbollah ruled Lebanon and had some success murdering Israelis with missiles; Hamas ruled Gaza, firing tens of thousands of rockets into Israel and murdering many Israelis. Hamas’ successful military invasion and massacre in October 2023 is another testament to the competence of these leaders in Iran.


I am curious about one particular aspect of these operations, namely the game theory, cognitive psychology, and longer-term strategy of the information each side in these conflicts releases as well as the timing of the information release.  Israel published the fact that some information released was intended to gather targeted leaders at the same location.


“We knew this would lead them to meet, but more importantly, we knew how to keep them there.”


So my question is, why would Israel publish this deception tactic?   Does Disclosing Manipulation Make Responses More Predictable or Manipulable?

Game Theory Perspective

In game theory, strategic interactions are modeled as games where players choose actions based on a payoff matrix that reflects the costs and benefits of their decisions. By publicly revealing their ability to manipulate and strike senior Iranian leaders, Israel effectively alters this matrix for Iran. The disclosure signals that Israel possesses superior intelligence and operational capacity, which Israel hopes will constrain Iran’s strategic options. For example, Iranian leaders might now prioritize protecting their remaining leadership, leading to defensive moves—such as dispersing key figures or fortifying command structures—that Israel could anticipate. If Iran perceives Israel’s capabilities as credible, their responses might become more predictable, as they react within a narrower set of choices designed to mitigate the revealed threat. However, if Iran suspects a bluff or seeks to challenge Israel’s resolve, they might opt for unpredictable counter-moves, complicating the outcome. Thus, game theory suggests predictability increases only if Iran’s leadership accepts the new strategic reality and adjusts rationally. Which AI models the psychology of the Iranian ruling counsel?

Military Strategy Perspective

Military strategy often employs deception, surprise, and psychological pressure to disrupt an adversary’s decision-making. Historically, targeting an enemy’s command structure—like Israel’s strike on senior leaders—aims to sow chaos and impair coordination. By disclosing this tactic, Israel may be engaging in psychological warfare, intending to demoralize Iran’s military and force its leaders into a reactive stance. If successful, this could lead to more cautious or standardized responses, such as adhering to established protocols, which are easier to predict. For instance, military doctrines often emphasize redundancy and pre-set contingency plans when leadership is threatened, potentially making Iran’s next steps more formulaic. However, this strategy risks backfiring if Iran interprets the disclosure as provocation and responds with unconventional or tactics intended to reduce predictability.

Psychological Perspective

My intuition—that paranoid, angry individuals are less predictable than calm, rational ones—is supported by some psychological research, that links heightened emotional states to impulsive or erratic behavior. However, the Israeli military’s disclosure might rest on a newer psychological hypothesis: under extreme stress or fear, people can revert to instinctual, habitual, or risk-averse patterns, making their actions more foreseeable. For example, surviving Iranian leaders, now aware of Israel’s lethal manipulation, might experience heightened paranoia or a sense of vulnerability. Their reactions would lead them to centralize decision-making, executing predictable operations, or over-rely on familiar, existing strategies—all of which could simplify Israel’s ability to anticipate their moves. Additionally, the stress of knowing they were outmaneuvered might induce “analysis paralysis,” where overthinking limits Iran’s flexibility, inadvertently making their responses even more manipulable. While evidence isn’t definitive, studies on stress responses (e.g., in crisis decision-making) suggest that extreme pressure can sometimes narrow behavioral options, supporting the idea that disclosure could enhance predictability under specific conditions.

Other Advantages of Disclosing This Information

Beyond influencing predictability, Israel’s public statement offers a few strategic benefits:


Deterrence: By showcasing their ability to orchestrate events and eliminate key figures, Israel signals to Iran that further aggression could invite similarly devastating strikes. This raises the perceived cost of escalation, potentially deterring offensive actions.


Psychological Warfare: The disclosure could erode morale among Iran’s military leadership, fostering distrust or fear of internal leaks (e.g., how Israel knew where and when to strike). This psychological pressure might weaken Iran’s cohesion, giving Israel an edge.



Signaling Resolve: The statement demonstrates Israel’s willingness and capability to act decisively, which could bolster domestic support, reassure allies, or justify their operations to the international community.

Risks and Caveats

While these advantages are compelling, the disclosure carries risks. It might provoke Iran into retaliating aggressively, especially if leaders view their setback as a public humiliation. Alternatively, Iran could adapt by enhancing security measures for their leaders—such as avoiding predictable gatherings—making future strikes harder. The effectiveness of this strategy hinges on how Iran’s leadership interprets and reacts to the revelation.

Conclusion

There is no conclusive proof that disclosing intentional manipulation makes an enemy’s responses more predictable or manipulable, but principles from game theory, military strategy, and psychology suggest it’s plausible under certain conditions. Game theory indicates that revealing capabilities could limit Iran’s strategic options, military strategy highlights the potential for disruption and reactive behavior, and psychology posits that stress might constrain decision-making patterns. Alongside these effects, the disclosure serves broader goals like deterrence and psychological warfare, though it risks escalation or adaptation by Iran. Ultimately, the success of this approach depends on how Iran’s leaders process the new reality Israel has imposed.


Saturday, June 7, 2025

More Everything Forever by Adam Becker (2025)


Adam Becker's book More Everything Forever rigorously critiques techno-utopian visions of artificial general intelligence, space colonization, the singularity, cryogenics, and immortality. As a lifelong enthusiast of 1950s "Golden Age" science fiction, with a career in Silicon Valley chip design and involvement in the L5 Society, MIT's lunar Mass Driver projects, and solar power satellite studies, I eagerly anticipated this book. My passion for space opera and early engagement with Yudkowsky's Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality made the book's topics profoundly personal.

Becker, a scientist, delivers compelling arguments supported by robust citations, deepening my skepticism about these utopian ideals. The book's detailed debunking of overhyped technologies—such as the limitations of current generative AI or the centuries-distant feasibility of space colonization—is both convincing and sobering. However, Becker's analysis falters in two areas. First, the book speculates on the motivations and beliefs of billionaires and thought-leaders, ascribing questionable intent to their ambitions. Second, the book presents Becker's social justice values as universal truths, using them to critique the philanthropy and philosophical contributions of these movements, which weakens the book's otherwise strong scientific foundation.

Despite these flaws, the book is a vital reality check. While I agree that immortality and AGI, as currently envisioned, are far-fetched, I believe dreamers drive progress. The book overlooks tangible achievements from these movements, such as advanced reusable rockets, low-cost space technologies, life-changing prostheses, orthoses, and neurological innovations. These breakthroughs show that lofty ideas, however distant, yield real-world impact. Sic itur ad astra—thus one journeys to the stars. This book is essential for those balancing scientific realism with humanity's drive to transcend. 4/5 Stars.

Wednesday, June 4, 2025

On Democracies and Death Cults by Douglas Murray (2025)


Douglas Murray's On Democracies and Death Cults (2025) is a masterful blend of incisive analysis and deeply personal reflection, delivered in his characteristically eloquent prose. Fans of The War on the West will recognize Murray's intellectual clarity as he dissects the October 7, 2023, Hamas invasion of Israel. Through vivid interviews, prison encounters, and firsthand observations, he chronicles the horrors—well-trained Hamas militants perpetrating rape, torture, and massacres of 1,200 victims, followed by civilians who looted and aided in kidnapping 250 others.

A recurring theme is Murray's profound connection to Deuteronomy's charge: "I have set before you life and death… therefore choose life." This scripture anchors his moral framework, contrasting sharply with the death-driven ideology of Hamas, which chillingly justifies atrocities like the murder of Jewish infants by labeling them "soldiers." While Murray exposes this twisted logic, his exploration of Hamas's ideological roots feels somewhat restrained, leaving readers craving deeper historical context.

A striking revelation (for me) is the enduring influence of Amin al-Husseini, the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, whose impact on the Muslim Brotherhood and modern Islamism. Though much of the content treads familiar ground for those versed in the Israel-Hamas conflict, Murray's ability to humanize the tragedy and tie it to his personal reverence for life-affirming scripture makes this a compelling read.

On Democracies and Death Cults is a powerful meditation on the clash between ideologies of life and death, urging readers to confront extremism's consequences with both heart and mind. 5/5 Stars.

Monday, May 26, 2025

Original Sin by Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson (2025)

Original Sin delivers a sharp exposé of former President Joe Biden's cognitive decline and the orchestrated cover-up by his inner circle, dubbed "The Politburo" by Tapper. This gripping "living history" reveals how advisors manipulated executive power, undermining constitutional integrity. Tapper, a former CNN journalist, admits partial complicity in downplaying Biden's condition, though his self-criticism lacks depth, given his public reporting at the time.

The book excels in dissecting the Democrats' failure to invoke the 25th Amendment, exposing a lack of integrity driven by loyalty and political expediency. It portrays congressional leaders as complicit, prioritizing party unity over public accountability, while vilifying Biden's family and aides as enablers. However, it neglects the administration's erratic foreign and domestic policies, leaving readers wanting a broader analysis of the power vacuum's consequences.

Compelling yet incomplete, Original Sin is a critical study of political ethics. 4/5 stars.


Saturday, May 3, 2025

The War on the West by Douglas Murray (2022)

Douglas Murray's The War on the West is a compelling and meticulously researched defense of Western culture and Enlightenment ideals. Murray's articulate and witty prose captivates, weaving a narrative that is as engaging as it is thought-provoking. With clarity and precision, he presents rational, common-sense arguments that illuminate the enduring value of Western principles while critically examining their complex interplay with other cultures across philosophy, arts, science, and universal values. His expansive exploration of these themes offers a nuanced perspective on the challenges facing Western society today. A masterful blend of scholarship and eloquence, this book is a must-read for those seeking to understand the cultural debates of our time. 5/5 stars.


Careless People by Sarah Wynn-Williams (2025)

Sarah Wynn Williams' Careless People is a captivating exploration of her tumultuous tenure at Facebook/Meta, delivered through the lens of an unreliable yet compelling narrator. Williams' idealism and unyielding drive to "heal the world" radiate through the narrative, illuminating the darker corners of her experience. Her account vividly traces the rise of social media as a formidable force in global political spheres, offering a fresh perspective on its far-reaching influence.

Particularly striking are Williams' subjective yet insightful depictions of navigating Facebook/Meta as a non-technical leader. She deftly unpacks the internal dynamics, highlighting the tensions between engineering teams and the broader organization. While the one-sided nature of her perspective occasionally skews the narrative, the authenticity of her voice and the clarity of her reflections make Careless People a thought-provoking read for anyone interested in the intersection of technology, power, and human ambition. 5/5 Stars.


Saturday, March 15, 2025

The Lindy Effect of public Internet Information and Object Permanence

The Lindy effect aka "Lindy's law" is the theory that the momentary future life expectancy of an idea or technology (object) is a Pareto probability distribution proportional to the current age of the object. So the longer something has existed, the longer its remaining life expectancy.  This idea also applies to some species of life, but subpopulations of animals frequently follow lognormal distributions instead of Pareto.

The short and shrinking lifetime of trending ideas and technology is nowhere more evident than Internet blogs, web sites, AI companies, and memes.  I discovered that jwz published a pair of scripts to make your URLs a little more permanent.  One rewrite URLs to use archive.org and the other crawls your wordpress blog to rewrite all links to point at archive.org.  

archive.org is the prime target for takedowns; in fact, the Lindy's Law link above was taken down!  Luckily, other preservation sites are filling the gap for wayback machine functionality. There are many web sites like archive.phstillio, perma.cc, mementoweb, and archivebox that can fill the gaps, but the longevity of these archive sites is also questionable.



Sunday, March 9, 2025

The Technological Republic by Alex Karp (2025)


Great book with interesting ideas and a refreshingly new perspective.  Alex Karp is emerging as a new intellectual thought leader among patriotic but rational, civil leaders in the USA.  His ethics and ideas are sometimes overly simplistic; and his expression of win/lose  Realpolitik is harsh. Thought-provoking and worthwhile, 5/5 Stars.

Saturday, March 1, 2025

Midnight in Moscow by John J Sullivan (2024)


The book offers a compelling and insightful recounting of the American ambassador's experiences in Russia during the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the tense prelude and early stages of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. For me, it was an eye-opening narrative. I've always found it perplexing how international dynamics can unravel when leaders become so entrenched in their own perspectives that they lose sight of reality. This story highlights a recurring failure of imagination—an inability to grasp the clear, unvarnished actions and motives of their counterparts on the global stage. 4/5 Stars. 

Wednesday, February 19, 2025

First they came for the Copy Editors. . .


Apologies for abusing the famous Holocaust poem in the title, I noticed today that the genAI bubble is making enormous progress at replacing developers.  I, personally, enjoy chatting with AI chatbots to accomplish many tasks and I am collecting my own personal sets of prompts and meta-prompts.  However, I cannot imagine what it would be like for a non-coder to use a genAI to write code because I already can code.  I suppose it would be akin to my using a genAI to compose and sell Hindi poetry and Hindi songs.  I speak no Hindi, have no sensibility for Hindi audiences' taste in music or how to earn money in a Hindi-speaking music market, etc.  The phenomenon is also like the Chinese Room thought experiment.

Side note on the title of this post

Niemöller famously and poetically articulated the wave of the Nationalsozialistische Deutsche Arbeiterpartei (Nazi) popular Zeitgeist ideology that swept across the population of Germany and led to death camps, extermination of people, etc.. Although there are many variations of the poem, the most common written version in Holocaust museums is:

First they came for the Socialists, and I did not speak out--
Because I was not a Socialist.
Then they came for the Trade Unionists, and I did not speak out--
Because I was not a Trade Unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out--
Because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me--and there was no one left to speak for me.

However, Niemöller likely used the word "Communists" in the original oration.

Saturday, February 8, 2025

Revenge of the Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell (2024)


I almost always enjoy Gladwell's stories and books.  This one is fantastic and highly recommended. 5/5 Stars.

Tuesday, February 4, 2025

If I betray these words by Wendy Dean and Simon Talbot (2023)

This book presents a fascinating and in-depth collection of vignettes that highlight the dedication and idealism of medical professionals. It vividly illustrates the struggles these devoted doctors face against the encroachment of private equity firms and other large corporate entities that destroy the integrity of patient care.

Through these narratives, we witness firsthand the detrimental impact of prioritizing shareholder value over patient well-being. The most valuable aspect of the book lies in the authors' insightful recommendations for how physicians can effectively navigate these challenging circumstances to ensure high-quality care for their patients.

Overall, this book is a thought-provoking examination of the intersection between medicine and corporate interests, offering both inspiration and practical guidance for healthcare professionals. 4/5 Stars.

Saturday, January 25, 2025

Die Fahrt von Sibylle Berg (2009)

Dieses Buch erinnert mich an James Micheners The Drifters aus dem Jahr 1971. Beide Romane stellen eine Gruppe junger Menschen und ihre Erfahrungen in verschiedenen Kulturen in den Mittelpunkt.

Bergs Buch entführt uns auf eine Reise um die Welt und legt den Fokus auf benachteiligte Menschen, die nach dem Sinn des Lebens suchen und darum kämpfen, ihre Lebensumstände zu verbessern. Als jemand, der Geschichten aus dem wahren Leben besonders schätzt, empfand ich Bergs Schreibstil als äußerst fesselnd. Jede Vignette zog mich tief in die Welt der Charaktere hinein.

Allerdings ist der gesamte Ton des Buches recht düster. Im Gegensatz zu Micheners Werk, das seine Auseinandersetzung mit sozialen Problemen durch Momente der Hoffnung ausgleicht, präsentiert Berg eine durchweg pessimistische Perspektive. Obwohl die Beobachtungsgabe und der Erzählstil des Autors beeindruckend sind, empfand ich den ständigen Fokus auf Leid und die scheinbare Aussichtslosigkeit, dauerhaftes Glück zu finden, als belastend.

Trotz der Schwere seiner Themen regt das Buch zum Nachdenken an und ist handwerklich gut geschrieben. Wenn Sie anspruchsvolle Lektüre schätzen, die einen ungeschönten Blick auf globale Ungleichheiten und menschliche Probleme wirft, werden Sie Bergs Werk vermutlich fesselnd finden. Wenn Sie jedoch eine aufbauende Geschichte suchen, ist dieses Buch möglicherweise keine geeignete Wahl.

Ich bewundere Bergs schriftstellerisches Talent und die Intensität seiner Erzählweise. Dennoch hinterließ die unnachgiebige Trostlosigkeit des Buches bei mir einen bedrückenden Eindruck. 3 von 5 Sternen.

Saturday, January 18, 2025

Hope for the best; plan for the rest by Hsien Seow and Sammy Winemaker (2023)


Similar, but not as good as Atul Gawande's Being Mortal, this book explains how and why most of us should prepare for our inevitable end-of-life and also for being a good team member of care-givers for loved-ones who approach end-of-life.  Gawande's book approaches the choices and tradeoffs, while this book provides a framework for navigating the system assuming you (or loved-one) has a clear understanding of the choices and tradeoffs. 3/5 Stars.