When everyone knows that everyone knows by Steven Pinker (2025)

Why do groups keep up stories everyone knows are false—where each person sees the truth but pretends not to? Why do we tolerate polite hypocrisy, subtle bribes, half-hidden threats, or strategic flirtation? As someone wired for blunt honesty, I've long been baffled by these layers of social theater that seem to breed confusion and harm.

Steven Pinker's new book takes this puzzle apart with his trademark clarity, drawing on research in evolution, linguistics, and game theory—from the prisoner's dilemma to "The Emperor's New Clothes." He argues that shared fictions and mutual pretense aren't just signs of human weakness; they are tools that keep social life running. Sometimes truth is too volatile, and a bit of collective make-believe prevents conflict or preserves dignity.

What's most compelling is how Pinker turns apparent irrationality into evidence of strategic intelligence. The very evasions that frustrate literal-minded people serve an adaptive purpose, softening the blunt edges of honesty in complex societies. In an age flooded with misinformation, the book offers a sharp framework for seeing when concealment unites and when it corrupts.

Nothing has changed how I think about communication this profoundly since Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow. This is Pinker at his best—precise, surprising, and deeply relevant. 5/5 stars.

Second Thoughts on the imminent Pop of the AI Bubble

The internet is buzzing with entertaining rants and doomsday predictions about the AI hype bubble's bursting any day now. Critics love to paint it as a fleeting fad doomed for a spectacular crash. Here are some of my favorite takedowns (links to the originals for your doom-scrolling pleasure):

• Fabio Ciucci's tweets
  
• Ed Zitron's fabulous vitriol
  
• Cory Doctorow's rant
• Nichil Suresh (of course)
• Vantille
• Ash Milton's sober article

Investors, meanwhile, obsess over "timing the top": Ride the wave of inflated expectations to the peak, then cash out before the plunge into the "trough of disillusionment." Smart strategy? Not so fast. Not so fast!

Because I am old, I see parallels to the Visicalc era of spreadsheets—the groundbreaking 1979 software that sparked a revolution but got crushed in the shakeout wars. What emerged? Microsoft Excel, the "evil empire's" powerhouse that now generates about $70 billion annually for Microsoft (MSFT). Valued alone at around $684 billion (excluding its vast ecosystem), Excel proves how one dominant tool can redefine industries. If AI proves even more transformational, $1 trillion in returns isn't just possible—it's within striking distance  

Wiser voices than mine argue this "hype bubble" won't deflate in one massive correction. The traditional Gartner Hype Cycle might not even apply here. Instead of a single pop, expect a series of refinements as AI matures into practical, profitable dominance. The real winners? Those who build for the long game, not the quick flip. What do you think—bubble or breakthrough?

The woman who smashed codes by Jason Fagone (2017)

I picked up The Woman Who Smashed Codes on the recommendation of colleagues who thought it might appeal to me because of its loose connection to cybersecurity. They were right. The book tells the story of Elizebeth Smith Friedman, a pioneering American cryptanalyst whose work laid much of the groundwork for modern codebreaking and national intelligence.

Fagone's writing is vivid and accessible. He brings the early 20th century to life through rich scenes and authentic dialogue that reflect the social norms, speech patterns, and intellectual energy of the time. What I particularly enjoyed was how the book captures that era's mindset—its optimism, its limits, and the quiet revolutions happening in scientific thought long before most people realized it.

The book does not shy away from the entrenched sexism Elizebeth and her peers faced, yet it handles those issues with balance. Fagone's tone is indignant where necessary but never heavy-handed. The result is both a tribute and a well-researched historical narrative.

Elizebeth's story also intersects with the birth of information theory and the cryptographic advances that would eventually culminate in Claude Shannon's 1939 work. Reading about her pre-Shannon efforts underscores how revolutionary those later ideas were, and how much of modern computing owes to the hidden labor of people like her.

For readers unfamiliar with cryptography, the book explains enough to make the puzzles and breakthroughs intelligible without drowning in mathematics. For readers who already know the field's history, Fagone's attention to archival detail and his portrayal of Elizebeth's marriage to fellow codebreaker William Friedman add valuable depth.

As a PhD in computer science and an avid reader of historical narratives grounded in real scientific and social change, I found this book deeply satisfying—both as history and as storytelling. It's an absorbing portrait of an overlooked figure whose intellect shaped the course of modern intelligence work.  5/5 Stars.

Does anyone really know what time it is?

The countdown to the "Epochalypse" has started.

https://slideshare.net/slideshow/epochalypse-now-the-coming-collapse-of-time-integrity-brucon-2025-umbelino-darley/283533877



See also TAI: https://mitchwyle.blogspot.com/2022/08/i-feel-earth-move-under-my-feet.html

( Thank you, "Chicago" for the title: https://youtube.com/watch?v=jgF_ycCmF18&t=67s )

Moon Rising by Ian McDonald (2019)

McDonald concludes the Luna trilogy by converging every narrative arc with space-opera optimism. The novel's lunar dynasties, shattered by betrayal and war, persist in a final contest for survival and autonomy. Character trajectories—Lucas Corta's persistence, Wagner's loyalty, and the Suns' political calculation—unfold through fun and credible transformations. McDonald sharpens genre conventions, anchoring personal stakes to wider systemic change and broader scope. Tension between familial ambition and social order drives the series to its conclusion, elevating the outcome beyond melodrama 5/5 stars.

Into the impossible: Think Like a Nobel Prize Winner by Brian Keating (2021)

I rarely make time for long-form podcasts, but I often watch Brian Keating's short YouTube videos. They condense physics and astronomy insights into compact, accessible commentary. Keating's strength lies in his engagement with unconventional thinkers—Avi Loeb, Eric Weinstein, Sabine Hossenfelder—and in his defense of rational inquiry: curiosity, the scientific method, collaboration, Humanist Enlightenment values, and ethical responsibility in research.

The book distills conversations with Nobel laureates into a framework for creative thought and scientific curiosity. Keating extends his interest in physics toward a broader philosophy of how discovery unfolds. Into the Impossible blends scientific reflection with the rhetoric of self-improvement, urging readers to test assumptions, question orthodoxy, and cultivate purposeful collaboration.

The result is engaging and coherent, though familiar. The book reiterates themes Keating has already articulated across his public work. For readers accustomed to his "snackable" videos, the content will feel like a polished synthesis rather than new terrain. Still, its clarity and intellectual warmth make the repetition worthwhile. 4/5 stars

Deep Space by Ian Douglas (2013)

In Deep Space, the fourth installment of Ian Douglas's military science fiction series, the familiar blend of vast interstellar conflict, political intrigue, and alien mystery continues with impressive energy. Douglas expands his universe with new technologies, additional alien species, and a steady escalation of fleet-scale battles that retain both tactical realism and emotional resonance.

The novel balances the spectacle of large-scale combat with evolving character arcs that add substance to the action. Several returning figures grow in depth, and for once, their personal stakes feel genuinely earned amid the chaos of war. The author handles his shifting perspectives and complex geopolitics with clarity, keeping the pacing brisk even as the strategic layers multiply.

While the grand themes of sacrifice and duty remain constant, Douglas injects enough unpredictability into the plot to keep readers engaged. A few turns arrive unexpectedly yet feel natural within the larger narrative structure.

Deep Space is classic Ian Douglas: hard-edged, cinematic, and unapologetically patriotic, with enough speculative science and spacefaring wonder to satisfy serious fans of the genre. 4/5 stars

The sword of freedom by Yossi Cohen (2025)

This book is equal parts memoir, political manifesto, and strategic reflection. While the text is saturated with self-promotion and at times descends into outright boasting, Cohen nevertheless delivers an unusually candid account of the inner workings of a modern intelligence service and its entanglement with statecraft. His personal ambition—to position himself as a plausible future prime minister—is barely concealed, and readers seeking a detached or modest narrative will not find it here.

Despite the political grandstanding, the book offers genuine rewards. Cohen's biographical vignettes and his recounting of espionage operations are both entertaining and instructive. More importantly, his discussion of the mission of a national intelligence service, the role of the individual spy, and the necessity of engaging with one's adversaries on their own terms is striking. He shows rare empathy for the values and goals of opponents, and from this vantage point explains the effectiveness of disinformation, deception, "big lies," and ideological campaigns waged against the West.

Perhaps the book's greatest contribution lies in its critique of the West's chronic diplomatic failures. Cohen highlights the disjunction between Western nations' reliance on Enlightenment humanist assumptions and the fundamentally different axioms guiding most political powers in the world today. By revealing how this mismatch enables adversaries to manipulate and outmaneuver liberal democracies, he forces readers to rethink not only intelligence but the philosophical underpinnings of Western diplomacy.

Ambitious, self-serving, yet ultimately illuminating, The Sword of Freedom succeeds in balancing flawed authorial ego with valuable insight into intelligence, power, and the limits of Western ideals. 4/5 stars

Wie Krankheiten Geschichte Machen von Ronald D. Gerste (2019)

Gerste hat mit „Wie Krankheiten Geschichte Machen" ein Buch geschrieben, das leider nicht an die Qualität von „Wie das Wetter Geschichte macht" heranreicht. Einige Anekdoten und Details sind zwar unterhaltsam, wirken aber eher wie Klatschgeschichten ohne echten Einfluss auf Politik oder historische Entwicklungen der großen Persönlichkeiten, über die er schreibt.

Spannender waren oft die beiläufig erwähnten Entwicklungen in der Medizin – Methoden, Therapien und diagnostische Fortschritte, die sich im Lauf der Zeit durchgesetzt haben. Gerade hier hätte man sich mehr Tiefgang gewünscht. Dagegen bleiben die Kapitel zu wirklich weltbewegenden Krankheiten wie der Schwarzen Pest, der Cholera oder den alltäglichen Belastungen durch endemische Leiden blass und oberflächlich.

Am Ende bleibt der Eindruck eines Buches, das zwar stellenweise nett zu lesen ist, aber sein Potenzial nicht ausschöpft. Wer sich ernsthaft für die Rolle von Krankheiten in der Menschheitsgeschichte interessiert, wird enttäuscht. 2/5 Sterne – keine Empfehlung.

The Handmaid's Tale by Margaret Atwood (1985)

As part of revisiting top-rated works of science fiction, I read Atwood's The Handmaid's Tale, a novel I had deliberately avoided upon its release in the 1980s. My reservations proved justified. The text is less a plausible work of speculative fiction than a polemical outburst against misogyny in human society.

Atwood's imagined dystopia in "Gilead," set implausibly in Maine, mirrors elements of life under repressive regimes in Somalia, Uganda, or Mali, where women today face forced subjugation, violence, sexual exploitation, and ritual mutilation. Yet Atwood's fictional setting fails as credible social critique because its economics, military structure, and theocratic politics collapse under even minimal consideration. The "world-building" is poorly constructed, driven more by ideological hostility than by disciplined extrapolation of political or social trends.

As a lifelong advocate for women's rights and careers, I find Atwood's mode of attack counterproductive. Shallow caricature and theatrical dystopianism do not advance feminist or humanist thought; they trivialize serious injustices by surrounding them with absurd scaffolding. The result is a deeply unconvincing vision that masquerades as insight. 1/5 stars.