Saturday, June 14, 2025

Der fremde Passagier 2 von Dominik A Meier (2023)


Das zweite Buch dieser zweiteiligen Reihe setzt das Abenteuer von William Kyle fort, dem unerschrockenen Schmuggler der Weltraumpiraten im Jahr 2197. Es ist noch schlimmer als das erste Buch.

Die Handlung setzt in eine dystopische Zukunft, in der die Erde die Herrschaft über das Sonnensystem an sich reißt. Die freien Kolonien fallen einer nach der anderen, und die Menschheit versinkt im Chaos, während eine mysteriöse Krankheit Millionen von Menschen dahinrafft.

Die Geschichte geht in den gleichen abgedroschenen, erfundenen Actionsequenzen wie im ersten Buch weiter, in denen William und seine Freunde jeder unmöglichen Situation nur knapp entkommen. Die letzten Chater winden sich zu einer bizarren, zufälligen, hirntoten Abfolge völlig unplausibler Ereignisse mit einem sehr deprimierenden, schrecklichen, aber sehr willkommenen Ende. Ich weiß nicht, warum ich weitergelesen habe. Absolut nicht zu empfehlen. 0/5 Sterne.

Friday, June 13, 2025

Drone Factories Behind Enemy Lines

Ukraine created and remotely operated a weaponized drone factory inside Russia. Ukraine also contracted honest Russian freight companies to load and move trucks and later train cars containing autonomous self-deploying fleets of drones near Russian military targets.  A good analysis of the 20th century history of this type of asymmetric “behind enemy lines” tactic is here. And a great military economics and strategy analysis of the success of the operations is here.



More recently, Israel created and remotely operated a weaponized drone assembly area as well as a missile assembly area inside Iran at a much longer distance (1,500 km).

Israel also coordinated suppression of enemy aerial defense (SEAD) with these vulnerable autonomous close-range weapon operations.


In addition, Israel targeted senior Iranian military leaders who were competent and successful at prosecuting their decades-long campaign to destroy Israel and murder all Israeli citizens. Iran has colonized much of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen. Iran created powerful proxy armies in each of these areas. The Houthis in Yemen fought the US Navy to a stand-still (draw) and continue to keep Israelis in bomb shelters every day with their missile attacks. Hezbollah ruled Lebanon and had some success murdering Israelis with missiles; Hamas ruled Gaza, firing tens of thousands of rockets into Israel and murdering many Israelis. Hamas’ successful military invasion and massacre in October 2023 is another testament to the competence of these leaders in Iran.


I am curious about one particular aspect of these operations, namely the game theory, cognitive psychology, and longer-term strategy of the information each side in these conflicts releases as well as the timing of the information release.  Israel published the fact that some information released was intended to gather targeted leaders at the same location.


“We knew this would lead them to meet, but more importantly, we knew how to keep them there.”


So my question is, why would Israel publish this deception tactic?   Does Disclosing Manipulation Make Responses More Predictable or Manipulable?

Game Theory Perspective

In game theory, strategic interactions are modeled as games where players choose actions based on a payoff matrix that reflects the costs and benefits of their decisions. By publicly revealing their ability to manipulate and strike senior Iranian leaders, Israel effectively alters this matrix for Iran. The disclosure signals that Israel possesses superior intelligence and operational capacity, which Israel hopes will constrain Iran’s strategic options. For example, Iranian leaders might now prioritize protecting their remaining leadership, leading to defensive moves—such as dispersing key figures or fortifying command structures—that Israel could anticipate. If Iran perceives Israel’s capabilities as credible, their responses might become more predictable, as they react within a narrower set of choices designed to mitigate the revealed threat. However, if Iran suspects a bluff or seeks to challenge Israel’s resolve, they might opt for unpredictable counter-moves, complicating the outcome. Thus, game theory suggests predictability increases only if Iran’s leadership accepts the new strategic reality and adjusts rationally. Which AI models the psychology of the Iranian ruling counsel?

Military Strategy Perspective

Military strategy often employs deception, surprise, and psychological pressure to disrupt an adversary’s decision-making. Historically, targeting an enemy’s command structure—like Israel’s strike on senior leaders—aims to sow chaos and impair coordination. By disclosing this tactic, Israel may be engaging in psychological warfare, intending to demoralize Iran’s military and force its leaders into a reactive stance. If successful, this could lead to more cautious or standardized responses, such as adhering to established protocols, which are easier to predict. For instance, military doctrines often emphasize redundancy and pre-set contingency plans when leadership is threatened, potentially making Iran’s next steps more formulaic. However, this strategy risks backfiring if Iran interprets the disclosure as provocation and responds with unconventional or tactics intended to reduce predictability.

Psychological Perspective

My intuition—that paranoid, angry individuals are less predictable than calm, rational ones—is supported by some psychological research, that links heightened emotional states to impulsive or erratic behavior. However, the Israeli military’s disclosure might rest on a newer psychological hypothesis: under extreme stress or fear, people can revert to instinctual, habitual, or risk-averse patterns, making their actions more foreseeable. For example, surviving Iranian leaders, now aware of Israel’s lethal manipulation, might experience heightened paranoia or a sense of vulnerability. Their reactions would lead them to centralize decision-making, executing predictable operations, or over-rely on familiar, existing strategies—all of which could simplify Israel’s ability to anticipate their moves. Additionally, the stress of knowing they were outmaneuvered might induce “analysis paralysis,” where overthinking limits Iran’s flexibility, inadvertently making their responses even more manipulable. While evidence isn’t definitive, studies on stress responses (e.g., in crisis decision-making) suggest that extreme pressure can sometimes narrow behavioral options, supporting the idea that disclosure could enhance predictability under specific conditions.

Other Advantages of Disclosing This Information

Beyond influencing predictability, Israel’s public statement offers a few strategic benefits:


Deterrence: By showcasing their ability to orchestrate events and eliminate key figures, Israel signals to Iran that further aggression could invite similarly devastating strikes. This raises the perceived cost of escalation, potentially deterring offensive actions.


Psychological Warfare: The disclosure could erode morale among Iran’s military leadership, fostering distrust or fear of internal leaks (e.g., how Israel knew where and when to strike). This psychological pressure might weaken Iran’s cohesion, giving Israel an edge.



Signaling Resolve: The statement demonstrates Israel’s willingness and capability to act decisively, which could bolster domestic support, reassure allies, or justify their operations to the international community.

Risks and Caveats

While these advantages are compelling, the disclosure carries risks. It might provoke Iran into retaliating aggressively, especially if leaders view their setback as a public humiliation. Alternatively, Iran could adapt by enhancing security measures for their leaders—such as avoiding predictable gatherings—making future strikes harder. The effectiveness of this strategy hinges on how Iran’s leadership interprets and reacts to the revelation.

Conclusion

There is no conclusive proof that disclosing intentional manipulation makes an enemy’s responses more predictable or manipulable, but principles from game theory, military strategy, and psychology suggest it’s plausible under certain conditions. Game theory indicates that revealing capabilities could limit Iran’s strategic options, military strategy highlights the potential for disruption and reactive behavior, and psychology posits that stress might constrain decision-making patterns. Alongside these effects, the disclosure serves broader goals like deterrence and psychological warfare, though it risks escalation or adaptation by Iran. Ultimately, the success of this approach depends on how Iran’s leaders process the new reality Israel has imposed.


Saturday, June 7, 2025

The Imposition of Unnecessary Obstacles by Malka Older (2024)


While browsing the 2025 Hugo Award nominations, I encountered The Imposition of Unnecessary Obstacles by Malka Older and decided to read it. Unfortunately, the novel fell far short of expectations, suffering from significant flaws in its science, characters, and world-building.

The scientific elements in the book lack credibility, undermining the story's foundation. Equally disappointing are the characters, none of whom I found engaging or relatable. Background characters, in particular, feel one-dimensional, adding little depth to the narrative. The novel's world-building, especially its economic systems, appears poorly constructed and unconvincing.

The overuse of recurring symbols and metaphors—such as the "cuppa" tea rituals, comfort food, and lesbian sex scenes—feels heavy-handed and detracts from the storytelling. These elements, intended to enrich the narrative, instead become repetitive and tiresome.

On a positive note, the depiction of academic politics stands out as a strength, offering sharp and insightful commentary. This aspect, however, cannot redeem the novel's broader shortcomings. 

I cannot recommend The Imposition of Unnecessary Obstacles due to its weak science, unlikable characters, and flawed world-building. Readers seeking a compelling sci-fi experience should look elsewhere. 2/5 Stars

More Everything Forever by Adam Becker (2025)


Adam Becker's book More Everything Forever rigorously critiques techno-utopian visions of artificial general intelligence, space colonization, the singularity, cryogenics, and immortality. As a lifelong enthusiast of 1950s "Golden Age" science fiction, with a career in Silicon Valley chip design and involvement in the L5 Society, MIT's lunar Mass Driver projects, and solar power satellite studies, I eagerly anticipated this book. My passion for space opera and early engagement with Yudkowsky's Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality made the book's topics profoundly personal.

Becker, a scientist, delivers compelling arguments supported by robust citations, deepening my skepticism about these utopian ideals. The book's detailed debunking of overhyped technologies—such as the limitations of current generative AI or the centuries-distant feasibility of space colonization—is both convincing and sobering. However, Becker's analysis falters in two areas. First, the book speculates on the motivations and beliefs of billionaires and thought-leaders, ascribing questionable intent to their ambitions. Second, the book presents Becker's social justice values as universal truths, using them to critique the philanthropy and philosophical contributions of these movements, which weakens the book's otherwise strong scientific foundation.

Despite these flaws, the book is a vital reality check. While I agree that immortality and AGI, as currently envisioned, are far-fetched, I believe dreamers drive progress. The book overlooks tangible achievements from these movements, such as advanced reusable rockets, low-cost space technologies, life-changing prostheses, orthoses, and neurological innovations. These breakthroughs show that lofty ideas, however distant, yield real-world impact. Sic itur ad astra—thus one journeys to the stars. This book is essential for those balancing scientific realism with humanity's drive to transcend. 4/5 Stars.

Wednesday, June 4, 2025

On Democracies and Death Cults by Douglas Murray (2025)


Douglas Murray's On Democracies and Death Cults (2025) is a masterful blend of incisive analysis and deeply personal reflection, delivered in his characteristically eloquent prose. Fans of The War on the West will recognize Murray's intellectual clarity as he dissects the October 7, 2023, Hamas invasion of Israel. Through vivid interviews, prison encounters, and firsthand observations, he chronicles the horrors—well-trained Hamas militants perpetrating rape, torture, and massacres of 1,200 victims, followed by civilians who looted and aided in kidnapping 250 others.

A recurring theme is Murray's profound connection to Deuteronomy's charge: "I have set before you life and death… therefore choose life." This scripture anchors his moral framework, contrasting sharply with the death-driven ideology of Hamas, which chillingly justifies atrocities like the murder of Jewish infants by labeling them "soldiers." While Murray exposes this twisted logic, his exploration of Hamas's ideological roots feels somewhat restrained, leaving readers craving deeper historical context.

A striking revelation (for me) is the enduring influence of Amin al-Husseini, the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, whose impact on the Muslim Brotherhood and modern Islamism. Though much of the content treads familiar ground for those versed in the Israel-Hamas conflict, Murray's ability to humanize the tragedy and tie it to his personal reverence for life-affirming scripture makes this a compelling read.

On Democracies and Death Cults is a powerful meditation on the clash between ideologies of life and death, urging readers to confront extremism's consequences with both heart and mind. 5/5 Stars.

Sunday, June 1, 2025

Pathfinder by Orson Scott Card (2011)


Although I usually avoid time-travel stories, Orson Scott Card's Pathfinder (2011), the first book in its series, completely won me over with his masterful storytelling and meticulous attention to detail. Card dedicates much of this opening volume to crafting a fascinating magic system that feels both unique and immersive. The characters, especially the teenage protagonists, are engaging and relatable, with the self-aware hero Rigg reminding me of Card's beloved character Ender Wiggin. The intricate political dynamics and vivid setting make the story lively and enjoyable. I'm excited to have found this series and look forward to continuing it. 5/5 Stars.


Friday, May 30, 2025

The Android's Dream by John Scalzi (2025)

John Scalzi's The Android's Dream is a hilarious, fast-paced, and heartfelt novel that brims with vibrant characters. The relentless, madcap action, delightfully melodramatic villains, cunning antagonists, and clever plot twists create an irresistible page-turner that's difficult to set down. I thoroughly enjoyed this zany, fun-filled story. 5/5 stars.


Promise me by Harlan Coben (2014)

I thoroughly enjoyed Promise Me, a gripping thriller in Harlan Coben's Myron Bolitar series, despite its somewhat formulaic plot. The characters are richly developed, and the story arcs are engaging and well-crafted. The twist at the end adds a delightful surprise. Familiar characters from the previous seven books remain entertaining and evolve naturally as they age. For fans of Coben, this novel is a fun, satisfying read. 4/5 stars.

Tuesday, May 27, 2025

The Forgotten Ship by J.N. Chaney & Terry Mixon (2025)

The Forgotten Starship, the opening installment of a new space opera series by prolific authors J.N. Chaney and Terry Mixon, delivers a compelling blend of interstellar adventure and character-driven storytelling. Set in a richly imagined universe, the narrative follows a crew navigating a derelict starship's mysteries, grappling with advanced alien technologies and existential threats. The plot's unpredictable twists, evoking Fritz Leiber's swashbuckling Fafhrd and Gray Mouser tales, balance high-stakes action with introspective character arcs.

The authors' world-building, while occasionally leaning into fantastical elements that may jar readers preferring hard science fiction, excels in evoking awe through speculative technologies and cosmic scale. Themes of resilience, discovery, and moral ambiguity resonate, offering STEM readers intellectual fodder for analyzing human-machine interactions and societal structures in speculative settings. Business professionals may appreciate the crew's strategic problem-solving and leadership dynamics under pressure.

Despite minor tonal inconsistencies from fantasy-infused elements, the vivid characters and intricate universe make this a strong series opener. I anticipate exploring the sequel to see how the narrative evolves. 4/5 Stars.

Monday, May 26, 2025

Original Sin by Jake Tapper and Alex Thompson (2025)

Original Sin delivers a sharp exposé of former President Joe Biden's cognitive decline and the orchestrated cover-up by his inner circle, dubbed "The Politburo" by Tapper. This gripping "living history" reveals how advisors manipulated executive power, undermining constitutional integrity. Tapper, a former CNN journalist, admits partial complicity in downplaying Biden's condition, though his self-criticism lacks depth, given his public reporting at the time.

The book excels in dissecting the Democrats' failure to invoke the 25th Amendment, exposing a lack of integrity driven by loyalty and political expediency. It portrays congressional leaders as complicit, prioritizing party unity over public accountability, while vilifying Biden's family and aides as enablers. However, it neglects the administration's erratic foreign and domestic policies, leaving readers wanting a broader analysis of the power vacuum's consequences.

Compelling yet incomplete, Original Sin is a critical study of political ethics. 4/5 stars.